Nintendo Switch 2: Analyst Projects Sales for 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction mirrors the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded initial projections and necessitated expedited shipments to meet demand. The anticipation surrounding the Switch 2 is palpable, frequently trending on social media. However, Piscatella cautions that this online buzz doesn't guarantee equivalent sales success.

Several crucial factors will influence the Switch 2's performance in 2025, including launch timing and the console's game library. A pre-summer launch, potentially around April, could capitalize on key holiday periods like Japan's Golden Week.

Piscatella's analysis suggests the Switch 2 will capture roughly one-third of the US console market share in 2025 (excluding handheld PCs), but he anticipates potential supply chain challenges. While the extent of Nintendo's manufacturing preparedness remains uncertain, the possibility of stockpiling to avoid a repeat of the original Switch's launch shortages, or even the PS5's, exists.

Despite the optimistic Switch 2 sales forecast, Piscatella predicts the PlayStation 5 will retain its position as the leading console in the US market. While the Switch 2's hype is undeniable, the anticipated release of major titles like Grand Theft Auto 6 on the PS5 could significantly impact sales. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on its hardware capabilities and the competitiveness of its initial game lineup.